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China has sent its coast guard into the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its ships conducted a “rights enforcement patrol” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the China coast guard to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by China would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was likely the coast guard, operating around the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. The island reports such Chinese patrols a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other nations, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.